A Statistical-Based Model for Typhoon Rain Hazard Assessment

Abstract

Extreme typhoon rainfall can lead to damaging floods near the coastal region in mainland China. In the present study, we calibrate the parameters for a parametric hurricane rain model by using the precipitation radar (PR) data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (i.e., PR-TRMM) and the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) data (i.e., TMI-TRMM). To show the applicability of the model for the tropical cyclone (TC) rain hazard assessment, we combine the developed rainfall intensity model with historical and synthetic TC tracks to estimate the T-year return period value of the accumulated rainfall in 24 h, QA24-T. We map QA24-100 for part of the coastal region in mainland China, showing that the spatial variation of QA24-100 is relatively smooth. It was found that the estimated QA24-100 using the model developed, based on the snapshots from PR-TRMM, is about 60% of that obtained using the model developed based on the snapshots from TMI-TRMM. This reflects the differences in the rainfall intensities reported in TMI-TRMM and PR-TRMM. As part of verification, we compare the estimated return period value to that obtained by using the record from surface meteorological stations at a few locations. The comparison indicates that, on average, QA24-100 based on gauge data is about 1.4 and 2.3 times that obtained using the model developed based on the snapshots from PR-TRMM and TRM-TRMM, respectively. This suggests that, for TC rain hazard estimation, one may consider the empirical scaling factor of 1.4 and 2.4 for the rainfall intensity models developed based on snapshots from PR-TRMM and TMI-TRMM, respectively.