A Statistical Analysis of the Migration Process: A Case Study—Romania

Rodica Pripoaie,Florentina Chițu,Anca-Gabriela Turtureanu,Carmen-Gabriela Sirbu,Laurentiu-Gabriel Talaghir,Emanuel Ştefan Marinescu,Daniela Monica Robu,Carmen-Mihaela Cretu

doi:10.3390/su14052784

Abstract

The research aims at studying and predicting the migration process in Romania over the last 20 years and at identifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study analyzes several models for estimating migration through linear regression, but also a VAR (Vector autoregression) analysis, as the variables can influence each other. Vector autoregression (VAR) is also used to model multivariate time series, and it can analyze the dynamics of a migration process. Therefore, the best model for forecasting the migration process in Romania is Model 1 of linear regression. This phenomenon generates many positive and negative economic, demographic and political effects. The migration process has become particularly important for Romania in the last 20 years, and its socio-economic, political and cultural effects affect the Romanian state. That is why flexible policies are needed in order to be coherent, to have as main purpose keeping specialists in the country in certain basic economic fields, as well to implement measures to determine the return of specialists and students who have left to study abroad.

Highlights

The international migration is global in nature, given that all countries are affected by this phenomenon—either as countries of origin, transit or destination
15): 15): the best model for forecast migration process in Romania is Model 1 of linear regression. This model gives us the opportunity to estimate the values of the migration process in Romania, which is of great practical importance for central government bodies to adapt their migration policies and strategies according to these projected values to mitigate the negative effects of migration on the national economy
The existence of a model that predicts how the migration process will evolve is very useful for any state and for adapting its migration policy according to the expected results that can be estimated for the period

Summary

Introduction

The international migration is global in nature, given that all countries are affected by this phenomenon—either as countries of origin, transit or destination. This phenomenon generates many positive and negative economic, demographic and political effects. Considering that the forecasts regarding the reduction of the total population, especially of the active one in Romania, are pessimistic, and that the migration process has a special importance for the national economy [1], this phenomenon overlaps with the accelerated aging of the population [2]. The migration phenomenon has economic effects both for the economy of the countries of origin and for the destination countries. In view of the above, it is important to see what

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Conclusion