A statistical analysis of the daily precipitation over Serbia: trends and indices

Abstract

A statistical analysis of the daily maximum and mean monthly precipitation measured at ten meteorological stations in Serbia during the period 1949–2007 is presented. Although the means of the daily maximum and monthly precipitation varied throughout the year, their ratio was almost uniform, with an average value of 32.6% for Serbia. The precipitation events within each year were ranked and then the trends on the ten wettest days of the year were assessed. Averaged across Serbia, the wettest day of the year produces 41.3 mm of precipitation and accounted for 6.3% of the total annual precipitation. Taken together, 35.5% (232.0 mm) of the total annual precipitation fell during the ten wettest days of the year. Over the course of the twentieth century, the average annual precipitation on the wettest day across Serbia increased by nearly 9%. Also, averaged across Serbia, statistically insignificant increasing trends were found on each of the ten wettest days of the year. Furthermore, four climate indices were analysed. Heavy precipitation indices (i.e., RR20 and R95T) increased in Serbia at the end of the twentieth century and thereafter.