A stakeholder-based framework for improving the resilience of groundwater resources in arid regions

Abstract

In this paper, a new stakeholder-based framework is proposed for groundwater resources management in arid regions. In this framework, rough set theory is used for the probabilistic classification of stakeholders considering their powers and interests, which are obtained from stakeholder analysis. Then, a system dynamics model is developed to evaluate the physical, economic, environmental, and social conditions of the system corresponding to each defined water resources management scenario. Moreover, an evidential reasoning approach is used to estimate the resilience of scenarios based on seven generic resilience principles. Finally, based on the results of stakeholder analysis, system dynamics modeling, and resilience analysis, groundwater management scenarios are ranked using a proposed social choice procedure called Electoral College Voting. The results of applying the methodology to the Rafsanjan plain in Iran illustrate that a scenario that includes modern irrigation systems and water transfer is the socially optimal scenario in the study area. Implementing this scenario reduces water consumption by 40%, improves the resilience of groundwater by about 50% and helps the aquifer to be recovered.