A species distribution model for pine marten (Martes martes) in the least forested region of Europe

Abstract

Species distribution modelling is a useful technique that provides data on factors that can influence a species range, identify high suitability areas and model future scenarios. The pine marten (Martes martes) has undergone major historical declines in abundance and distribution in Northern Ireland, similar to that which has occurred throughout its range. Currently, the species is in a phase of range expansion in Northern Ireland, in what is the least forested landscape in Europe. To assess the suitability of this environment for pine marten re-establishment, presence only distribution data combined with landcover data at a 10-km scale were used in a species distribution modelling study using Maxent. The results indicated that approximately 32% (4500 km2) of the land area of Northern Ireland had a high probability of pine marten occurrence. Pine marten distribution was positively associated with the extent of conifer forest landcover types, which also had the highest single attribute contribution to the model. Landcover types that were negatively associated with pine marten distribution included the extent of open, dwarf and urban areas.