A Spatio-temporal distribution analysis of vesicular stomatitis outbreak in Ecuador, 2018

Abstract

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is a viral disease primarily affecting cattle, swine, and equine causing economic losses. It is of particular interest because its outward signs are similar to those of foot-and-mouth disease. Outbreaks of VS occurred in several herds in Ecuador in 2018, affecting principally bovines. In this sense, the present study was conducted to characterize the temporal and spatial dynamics of Vesicular stomatitis occurrence between January and December 2018. During the study period, 583 animals with symptoms of VS were reported. In this way, tissue samples were collected, VS was diagnosed, and outbreaks were defined as herds with a confirmed positive test for the disease. Outbreaks were georeferenced, and Space-time clusters were used to determine zones where the number of reported outbreaks was more significant than expected. A space-time permutation scan statistic (STPSS) was used to identify hot spots of space-time interaction within patterns of the cases reported. Standard Monte Carlo Critical Value was used to test for the cluster's significance. A total of 399 outbreaks were presented in 18 provinces. Spatial scan statistics allowed the detection of four significant space-time clusters of VS outbreaks. The highest incidence was reported around week 35 and week 44, which were observed outbreaks increase in the country's north region. In this sense, clusters coincided with the areas with the highest incidence of outbreaks. Besides, maps showed places where the disease is not shared. The information showed in the present study may contribute to prevents VS spread into regions of Ecuador that is only sporadically affected by the disease. Monitoring in affected zones may lead to quick responses to possible outbreaks issuing alerts when there is a greater than typical risk of spreading the disease