A spatiotemporal analysis using expert-weighted indicators for assessing social resilience to natural hazards

Abstract

Measuring social resilience to natural hazards is crucial for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. In this study, we weighted 31 quantitative and qualitative resilience indicators using an expert-based procedure. The indicators were organized into five dimensions: social resilience, economic resilience, institutional resilience, and housing/infrastructural resilience, for measuring social resilience to natural hazards, with a specific focus on landslide vulnerability. We first modeled and mapped spatially explicit landslide vulnerability at the county level over a 20-year period in a mountainous region in western Iran using a random forest method. We next computed a county-level total resilience index (TRI) using the expert-weighted indicators in response to landslide vulnerability (i.e., physical resilience). Experts deemed total population density, proportion of employed economically active population, and total number of hospitals and health centers as the most important variables for imparting social resilience to landslide vulnerability. We found that increased unemployment rate, decreased bank deposits, and reduction of activities or closure of factories and workshops were the main causes of decreasing the resilience of the study counties over the past two decades. We suggest that enhancing the social resilience requires more efficient economic planning, development of investment, establishment of a disaster prevention system, and improved international relations.