A spatial-temporal/3-D model for volcanic hazard assessment : Application to the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada

Abstract

We present a 3-D Poisson model that permits identification and quantification of volcanic phenomena distributed through space and evolving in time (i.e., spatiotemporal data). Specifically, the model: (1) is volcanologically informative in solving problems of volcanic risk/hazard which depends on the location and time of future events; (2) contains model fitting computation algorithms that are efficient; and (3) is flexible enough to handle a large class of volcanic risk/hazard studies. Furthermore, we apply the model fitting techniques developed in this paper to the volcanic data from the Yucca Mountain project to demonstrate a unified volcanic hazard analysis. This study also evaluates the sensitivity of the statistical models developed by experts who have addressed the volcanic hazard/risk assessment problem near the Yucca Mountain region.