A Spatial Simulation Model For The Diffusion Of A Novel Biofuel On The Austrian Market

Abstract

To ensure long-term security of energy supply and to mitigate climate change, sustainable low-carbon alternatives to fossil fuels are needed. Second generation biomassto-liquid biofuels provide such an alternative and are widely considered a promising technology that may overcome the environmental and economic problems associated with first generation biofuels. In Austria, a research group at the Vienna University of Technology is developing such a biofuel based on Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. While the remaining technical challenges are expected to be overcome in due time, the market introduction also requires substantial investments. In this work, we introduce an agent-based simulation model that can provide potential investors with forecasts for the biofuel’s market diffusion. The model considers initial and repeat purchases, multiple competing products, and the spatial dispersion of both consumers and potential points of sale. Given limited production capacity, the latter feature supports decision makers in choosing (initial) points of sale with respect to rich sources of biomass as well as the geographic concentration of consumers.