A spatial patterning of the relationship between indigenous police force numerical strength, socioeconomic characteristics and crime rate in Nigeria

Abstract

Criminal activity is unevenly spread over space, necessitating the intervention of local residents to combat the threat. This study seeks to examine the overall patterning of the effect of socioeconomic/demographic indicators and crime rates on indigenous police force numbers in Nigeria. Both the rates of indigenous police number and crime were studied using spatial and quantitative methodologies, which was based on data from National Bureau of Statistic (2017, 2018) as well as the educational index, unemployment rate, and % male. Crime rates and socioeconomic/demographic factors were investigated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression in ArcGIS 10.5 environment to see how they connect to the need for more indigenous police officers at the state level. To further comprehend the spatially changing associations between the rate of indigenous police number and the independent variables included in the OLS model, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was utilized. Findings revealed that the states of Adamawa, Akwa-Ibom, Benue, Edo, and Kogi had the highest rates of indigenous police officers, whereas Anambra, Bauchi, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Jigawa, Kano, Lagos, Oyo, and Sokoto had the lowest indigenous police numbers. The study found that the states of Delta, Ebonyi, Lagos and the FCT recorded high rate of theft/stealing due to lower rate of indigenous police number and high population density. According to the study, the rate of indigenous police officers diminishes as population density rises. Also, the rate of indigenous police officers was highly connected with rates of robbery and theft/stealing. This study used GWR to highlight the spatially varying relationships between the socioeconomic/demographic indicators and various crime rates on rate of indigenous police officers in Nigeria, which will help Federal Government of Nigeria, decide which appropriate measures are needed for concentrating on states with high crime rates that need more local policing. The study emphasizes the need for safe states being established not just by law enforcement but by a wide range of social and economic sectors and services, as well as integrating more indigenous people in state policing.