Abstract
Ballast water in ships is an important contributor to the secondary spread of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here, we use a model previously created to determine the role ballast water management has played in the secondary spread of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) to identify the future spread of one current and two potential invasive species in the Great Lakes, the Eurasian Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus), killer shrimp (Dikerogammarus villosus), and golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei), respectively. Model predictions for Eurasian Ruffe have been used to direct surveillance efforts within the Great Lakes and DNA evidence of ruffe presence was recently reported from one of three high risk port localities identified by our model. Predictions made for killer shrimp and golden mussel suggest that these two species have the potential to become rapidly widespread if introduced to the Great Lakes, reinforcing the need for proactive ballast water management. The model used here is flexible enough to be applied to any species capable of being spread by ballast water in marine or freshwater ecosystems.
Highlights
Invasive species have been identified as one of the major threats to the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems, including the Laurentian Great Lakes [1, 2]
Lawrence Seaway in 1959, ballast water has increasingly become the dominant pathway for non-native species to enter the Great Lakes [3, 4] and an important vector of secondary spread of invasive species and diseases [5,6,7]
If Eurasian Ruffe had only spread naturally at a rate of 25-km per year, it would have taken 55 years to reach the furthest extent of current invasion rather than the observed 26 years (Figure 1), signifying that the chosen models provided the most likely scenario for the secondary spread of Eurasian Ruffe
Summary
Invasive species have been identified as one of the major threats to the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems, including the Laurentian Great Lakes [1, 2]. In order to focus detection and monitoring efforts and plan prevention, response, and containment, it is important to predict locations of potential introduction and patterns of spread within the Great Lakes. We report the results of predictions made for one established, but localized, Great Lakes invader (Eurasian Ruffe, Gymnocephalus cernuus), and two predicted future invaders (killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus, and golden mussel, Limnoperna fortunei). These three species were prioritized by Great Lakes resource managers and scientists as species whose spread around the Great Lakes may be enhanced by movement of ballast water. The species chosen are representative of probable future invasion management challenges in the region, but our approach may be applied to any species that may be moved via ballast water and to any ecosystem that may experience invasions due to commercial shipping
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