A spatial-and-temporal-based method for rapid particle concentration estimations in an urban environment

Abstract

The increasing construction of buildings and infrastructure in cities heavily influences pollutant dispersion and causes a spread of increased particle concentrations. Real-time data and information on local pollution levels are highly desired by residents, urban planners and policy-makers. Such information is scarce due to the high cost of real-time measurement. To fill the gap, the aim of this research is to develop a model that can rapidly estimate particulate pollution based on a data-driven artificial neural network modelling approach. The key influential factors such as background pollution level, weather conditions and urban morphology are embedded in the model in association with local emission sources of pollution relating to construction activities and traffic flows. The data for urban spatial-variables (building and road) and traffic information is processed with the aid of the Geographic Information System using self-developed Python scripts. The geographic dataset containing the required information for each grid is integrated with the artificial neural network model to perform forecasting of particle concentrations. The model has been verified with measurements from a case study with 20 sample locations in Chongqing, China, showing that the average relative error of particle concentration estimation compared to measurement is 17.56% for PM10 and 16.04% for PM2.5. A map of a time-specific spatial interpolation of particle concentrations which visualises real-time pollution is consequently produced based on the method. The newly proposed method is novel and holistic which integrates spatial and time information covering aspects of urban form, weather file, traffic, construction sites. The rigorously validated model has been transformed to a robust tool for a fast estimation of real-time particle concentration in an urban environment.