A Spatial Analysis of Suicide Displacement at a High-Risk Cliff-Based Location Following Installation of a Means Restriction Initiative

Abstract

Means restriction interventions are recognised as highly effective for the deterrence of suicide attempts by jumping. While such interventions can lead to significant reductions in suicide, it is unclear whether these reductions represent a displacement effect, whereby individuals are instead choosing to attempt suicide at other nearby locations which offer the same means. The potential displacement of suicides as an unintended consequence of means restriction has been relatively unexplored to date. The only studies exploring displacement effects have focused on bridges, which are relatively easily contained sites; no studies have yet explored displacement effects at cliff-based high risk suicide locations (hotspots). Using Australian coronial data for the period of 2006–2019, we undertook joinpoint and kernel density analysis of suicides by jumping at a well-known cliff-based hotspot in Sydney, Australia, to determine whether there was evidence of displacement to local and broader surrounding cliffs following the installation of a multi-component harm minimization intervention (the Gap Park Masterplan). While slight decreases were noted in the immediate area subject to the structural intervention in the post-implementation period, alongside slight increases in the surrounding cliffs, there was no evidence for statistically significant changes. While kernel density analyses did not identify the emergence of any new hotspot locations in the post-implementation period, three existing hotspot sites of concern were found in our total area of interest, with greater than expected growth in the density of one of the hotspots. While we found no persuasive evidence of displacement, ongoing monitoring of the cliff-based location where the structural interventions were implemented is needed to ensure the ongoing safety of the area.