A space mission to detect imminent Earth impactors

Abstract

One of the goals of NEO surveys is to discover Earth impactors before they hit. How much warning time is desirable depends on the size of the impactors: for the larger ones more time is needed to mount effective mitigation measures. Initially, NEO surveys were aimed at large impactors, that can have significant global effects; however, their typical time scale is orders of magnitude larger than human lifetime. At the other extreme, monthly and annual events, liberating energies of the order of 1 to 10 kilotons, are immaterial as a threat to mankind, not justifying substantial expenditure on them. Intermediate events are of more concern: in the megatons range, timescales are of the order of centuries, and the damage can be substantial. A classical example is the Tunguska event, in which a body with a diameter of about 30 to 50 m liberated about 5 megatons in the atmosphere, devastating 2 000 square kilometers of Siberian forest.