A software system for assessing the spatially distributed ecological risk posed by oil shipping

Abstract

A maritime accident involving an oil tanker may lead to large scale mortality or reductions in populations of coastal species due to oil. The ecological value at stake is the biota on the coast, which are neither uniformly nor randomly distributed. We used an existing oil spill simulation model, an observation database of threatened species, and a valuation method and developed a software system for assessing the spatially distributed ecological risk posed by oil shipping. The approach links a tanker accident model to a set of oil spill simulations and further to a spatial ecological value data set. The tanker accident model is a Bayesian network and thus we present a case of using a Bayesian network in geographic analysis. A case in the Gulf of Finland is used for illustration of the methodology. The method requires and builds on an extensive data collection and generation effort and modeling. The main difference of our work to earlier works on using a Bayesian network in geospatial setting is that in our case the Bayesian network was used to compute the probabilities of spatial scenarios directly in a global sense while in earlier works Bayesian networks have been used for each location separately to obtain global results. The result was a software system that was used by a distributed research team.