A socio-economic and environmental vulnerability assessment model with causal relationships in electric power supply chains

Abstract

The electric power industry is uniquely vulnerable to natural and human-made risks such as natural disasters, climate change, and cybersecurity. This study proposes a vulnerability assessment framework to identify and assess the risks associated with the electric power supply chain in the United Kingdom and study the causal relationship among them with the neutrosophic revised decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (NR-DEMATEL) method. We further introduce a novel hesitant expert selection model (HESM) to assist decision-makers with expert selection and weight determination. We present a case study in the United Kingdom power supply chain to demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed method in this study. This is the first comprehensive risk interdependence analysis of the United Kingdom's power supply chain. The findings reveal natural disasters and climate change are the most crucial risks followed by industrial action, affordability, political instability, and sabotage/terrorism.