A socio-ecological model of the Segura River basin, Spain

Abstract

The Segura River basin in South-East Spain is home to aquatic and dry-land ecosystems of regional significance. Pressurised, over the course of the last five decades, by interests of agricultural origin, the basin is caught up in a persistent water crisis traversed by conflict and socio-ecological deterioration. This article presents a socio-ecological-system characterisation of the Segura River basin with a focus on the interactions between institutional performance and expectations on irrigation water supply. The contribution of this research is twofold: first, it provides a model that develops a conceptual articulation of a socio-ecological framework in the idiom of Systems Dynamics; second, it generates (both numerical and qualitative) policy-relevant insights into the basin's crisis, in a way that fully reflects its complexity. Our results indicate that ∼333.100 ha of drylands and agro-natural landscapes were lost to agriculture, and that groundwater overexploitation reached ∼500 Hm3 within the 1960-2021 modelling horizon. Our work accurately models the pervasive impacts of intensive agriculture expansion in the Segura basin and portrays some of the socio-ecological consequences of the hydraulic paradigm in Spain, raising crucial doubts on the dominant forms of water governance in the region.