Abstract

This paper estimates the social welfare effect of China’s largest online ride-sharing platform. Under the plausible assumption that consumers would change from traditional transportation to online ride-sharing when the marginal benefit of saved time outgrows the additional cost, we calculate the distribution of implied wage rate of passengers. We then use the passenger wage rate to calculate the social welfare generated by the decrease in waiting time and the reduction of waiting uncertainty brought about by the ride-sharing platform. Our estimate suggests that the ride-sharing platform created a total of 130.5 billion Yuan of social welfare in the three years between 2016 and 2018, and the consumer surplus and producer surplus created by an average transaction are 5.4 Yuan and 2.5 Yuan, respectively. The robustness test finds that our results were insensitive to the assumed risk aversion coefficient in the model, the subsample number used for each city, and the inclusion of nonlinear terms in the model. Alternative hypotheses, such as learning effect, seem unable to explain our result.

Highlights

  • The online car-hailing business has expanded rapidly, but its utility remains controversial

  • The consumer surplus and producer surplus created by a single order are 5.4 Yuan and 2.5 Yuan, respectively

  • We use the difference between the time of passengers entering the online car-hailing market and traditional transportation options to calculate the wage rate of passengers entering the market

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Summary

Introduction

The online car-hailing business has expanded rapidly, but its utility remains controversial. To estimate the social welfare created by ride-hailing and the impact of regulation, we make use of a highly unique dataset coming from the largest national ride-hailing platform in China. Cohen et al (2016) used the data of Uber, the largest online car-hailing platform in the United States, to calculate the social welfare of ride-sharing. They used the mark-up behavior of passengers in different road scenarios to infer their willingness to pay and their social welfare. The rest of our paper is arranged as follows: Section 1 describes the model and method of online car-hailing welfare estimation, Section 2 gives the sample data description and empirical analysis results, Section 3 offers the more detailed robustness test results, and the last Section summarizes the whole article and discusses the relevant policy implications

Model setting
Estimation method
Our method compared with other papers
Empirical analysis and results
Baseline estimation results
Inter-city heterogeneity results
Regulatory estimates of social welfare losses
Robustness test
Robustness test of parameters
Robustness test of user segmentation
Influence of nonlinear properties on estimation results
The learning effect
The impact of bicycle-sharing on the estimated results
Using taxis as baseline
Potential channels for negative impact on social welfare
The effect of responsive rate of the platform
Findings
Research conclusions and policy recommendations
Full Text
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