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Abstract
The potential influence of natural variations in a climate system on global warming can change the hydrological cycle and threaten current strategies of water management. A simulation-based linear fractional programming (SLFP) model, which integrates a runoff simulation model (RSM) into a linear fractional programming (LFP) framework, is developed for optimal water resource planning. The SLFP model has multiple objectives such as benefit maximization and water supply minimization, balancing water conflicts among various water demand sectors, and addressing complexities of water resource allocation system. Lingo and Excel programming solutions were used to solve the model. Water resources in the main stream basin of the Songhua River are allocated for 4 water demand sectors in 8 regions during two planning periods under different scenarios. Results show that the increase or decrease of water supply to the domestic sector is related to the change in population density at different regions in different target years. In 2030, the water allocation in the industrial sector decreased by 1.03–3.52% compared with that in 2020, while the water allocation in the environmental sector increased by 0.12–1.29%. Agricultural water supply accounts for 54.79–77.68% of total water supply in different regions. These changes in water resource allocation for various sectors were affected by different scenarios in 2020; however, water resource allocation for each sector was relatively stable under different scenarios in 2030. These results suggest that the developed SLFP model can help to improve the adjustment of water use structure and water utilization efficiency.
Highlights
Most surface water resources are stored in channels and basins, and these waters have long regeneration cycles and are heterogeneously distributed
This paper uses the relationship between runoff, precipitation and potential evaporation (PET) proposed by Liu [26], and it can be expressed as follows [27]: R0 = kPα PET β where R0 is the simulated runoff, 108 m3 ; P is the precipitation, mm; PET is the potential evapotranspiration, mm
The simulation-based linear fractional programming (SLFP) model aims to allocate limited water resources to different water demand sectors including the agricultural water sector, industrial water sector, domestic water sector and environmental water sector, which are denoted as AgWSit, InWSit, DoWSit, and EcWSit, respectively, in 2020 and 2030, denoted as t = 1 and t = 2, respectively
Summary
Most surface water resources are stored in channels and basins, and these waters have long regeneration cycles and are heterogeneously distributed. Researchers and managers have to determine how to allocate limited water resources to different areas or water departments to achieve the optimal balance between social, economic and ecological benefits. Optimizing water resource allocation is an important task [2,3,4]. With the development of economy and society, the development and utilization of water resources has gradually shifted from a single goal to a comprehensive utilization. Under such circumstances, the single objective programming method that focuses on economic benefit only is no longer applicable
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