Abstract
This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM) which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.
Highlights
Evacuation is one of the most important measures adopted in emergency response to protect masses and to avoid both physical and property damages
In the studies throughout the world that focus on the evacuation route choice problem, modeling methods include static traffic assignment and dynamic network traffic flow theory
The model contains three parts: the lanegroup-based cell transmission model CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out, the actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval, and the stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium
Summary
Evacuation is one of the most important measures adopted in emergency response to protect masses and to avoid both physical and property damages. For simulating the dynamic propagation process of network traffic flow more accurately, based on the CTM, Lo and Szeto 3 established an optimal dynamic route choice model via the variational inequality. Szeto and Lo 4 contributed a DTA variational inequality optimum model considering both choices of route and departing time under the condition of elastic traffic demand They proposed a disequilibrium DTA model and obtained the route impedance function through CTM simulation in 2005 5. The model contains three parts: the lanegroup-based cell transmission model CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out, the actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval, and the stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. It can be applied to estimate the real-time evacuation traffic condition and provide the basis for evaluating the performance of evacuation plans developed in response to the possibility of an event or a disaster
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
