A Simulation Study on the Impact of the Digital Economy on CO2 Emission Based on the System Dynamics Model

Abstract

The digital economy plays an important role in achieving the strategic goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” in China. In this study, we construct a system dynamics (SD) model to comprehensively analyze the impact of the digital economy on CO2 emission. First, we simulate and forecast the future baseline of the digital economy, energy consumption, and CO2 emission in China from 2005 to 2040. Second, we study the impact of the digital economy on CO2 emission based on scenario analysis of different digital economy growth rates. Finally, we study the influencing factors of CO2 emission reduction effect of the digital economy. The results indicate the following: (1) CO2 emission will peak in 2034. From 2020 to 2025, the cumulative reduction in energy consumption intensity will be 15.75% and the cumulative reduction in CO2 emission intensity will be 20.9%. Both indicators will reach the national goals during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. However, it will require more effort to realize the goal of the share of non-fossil energy. (2) There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and CO2 emission. The digital economy aggravates CO2 emission mainly by promoting energy consumption, but it reduces CO2 emission by promoting the upgrading of the energy consumption structure and reducing the energy consumption intensity. (3) The R&D investment intensity and the environment investment intensity can strengthen the CO2 emission reduction effect of the digital economy. The results will be crucial for carbon reduction and provide policymakers with suggestions for sustainability.