Abstract
Background. Precision public health is a state-of-the-art concept in public health research and its application in health care. Application of information technology in field of epidemiology paves the way to its transformation to digital epidemiology. A geospatial epidemiological model was simulated to estimate the spread of Ebola virus disease after a hypothetical outbreak in India. Methods. It was a simulation study based on SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) compartmental model. Simulation was done in Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM). Epidemiological profile of Ebola virus, that transmitted throughout the Sierra Leon in 2014–2016, was fitted into the SEIR deterministic compartment model designed for India. Result. Spatiotemporal distribution of EVD exposed, infectious, and recovered population at 4-month interval represented by different figures. It is estimated that if no intervention is taken to stop the spread, within 2 years, almost half of the country will be effected by EVD and cumulative number of exposed individuals, infectious persons, and deaths will be 106947760, 30651674, and 18391005, respectively. Conclusion. Precision public health may play the key role to achieve the health related targets in the Sustainable Development Goals. Policy makers, public health specialists, and data scientists need to put their hands together to make precision public health a reality.
Highlights
The incidence of various emerging and reemerging infectious diseases continues to pose a substantial threat to the human health throughout the world [1]
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is one of the notorious emerging infectious diseases that endanger the human lives from time to time since its appearance in 1976 in Zaire and Sudan in Africa continent [2]
On March 29, 2016, Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) related to EVD was lifted from West Africa and on June 9, 2016, World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the most recent outbreak of EVD [5]
Summary
The incidence of various emerging and reemerging infectious diseases continues to pose a substantial threat to the human health throughout the world [1]. On August 8, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the EVD outbreak in West Africa a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) under the International Health Regulations (2005). By the end of the epidemic, total 15227 confirmed EVD cases have been reported with 11310 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone [6]. A geospatial epidemiological model was simulated to estimate the spread of Ebola virus disease after a hypothetical outbreak in India. It was a simulation study based on SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) compartmental model. Epidemiological profile of Ebola virus, that transmitted throughout the Sierra Leon in 2014–2016, was fitted into the SEIR deterministic compartment model designed for India. Public health specialists, and data scientists need to put their hands together to make precision public health a reality
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