A simulation of New Zealand's climate during the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract

New Zealand's climate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been investigated using the United Kingdom Met Office global (HadAM3H) and regional model (HadRM3H). All models were set up according to the glacial conditions as specified by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), although SSTs and sea-ice were supplied from a set of prior coupled model (HadCM3) runs. The simulated climate of New Zealand during the LGM was mainly compared against a control simulation which was set up for pre-industrial conditions. New Zealand's simulated LGM climate was cooler than today, varying spatially between 2.5 and 4 °C. There was an increase in seasonality in temperature with the seasonal cooling being largest during winter. Excluding the Alpine/Fiordland region, the largest cooling geographically took place in the east of the South Island (ESI). Annual mean precipitation was reduced but there were significant regional and seasonal variations. The main band of precipitation along the West Coast shifted westwards, resulting in a reduction in precipitation over those regions in the Southern Alps that receive the largest amount of precipitation in today's climate. The westerly circulation increased considerably over the North Island and the northern part of the South Island, but did not change much over the rest of the South Island. The stronger westerly wind accentuated the cooling over the western and northern parts of the North Island and it probably reduced the occurrence of incursions of tropical lows over the north of the North Island. The westerly winds were weaker over New Zealand during winter, which appears to be related to enhanced blocking activity during that season. The number and the strength of the southerlies increased, and they were capable of bringing very cold polar air over most of the country. The east of the South Island was affected especially by these cold winds. The simulated cooling during the LGM is not sufficient to limit forest growth. It is proposed here, that together with the general drier and colder conditions, it was the increase in seasonality and extremes of climate that limited the growth of certain vegetation types.