A Simulation of Economic Loss Impact and Recovery: A Case Study of Shima City Assuming Nankai Trough Earthquake

Abstract

According to Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 2015–2030, understanding disaster risk not only in hazards but also in impacts of economic growth is considered as an important process of DRR activities and disaster preventions. There are several previous researches on proposing estimation methods of disaster damage, and the models in these researches are of great value to predict the damage of Nankai Trough earthquake. However, they have not considered about the effects of population change on economic damage and recovery. This study expends previous estimation models of the abovementioned and develops a simulation model of economic recovery process that incorporates the population variation amount. Specifically, focusing on the damage of private sector enterprises and population outflow from the disaster-stricken areas, it proposes the time-series recovery process model of regional economy and applies to a coastal city Shima in Mie Prefecture, Japan, and examines the economic recovery process and the damage and losses by using the Nankai Trough earthquake in 2030 as a hypothesis.