A simulation model to estimate cost-offsets for a disease-management program for chronic kidney disease

Abstract

Aim: The aim of this paper is to develop a simulation model that analyzes cost-offsets of a hypothetical disease management program (DMP) for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Germany compared to no such program. Methods: A lifetime Markov model with simulated 65-year-old patients with CKD was developed using published data on costs and health status and simulating the progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular disease and death. A statutory health insurance perspective was adopted. Results: This modeling study shows considerable potential for cost-offsets from a DMP for patients with CKD. The potential for cost-offsets increases with relative risk reduction by the DMP and baseline glomerular filtration rate. Results are most sensitive to the cost of dialysis treatment. Conclusion: This paper presents a general ‘prototype’ simulation model for the prevention of ESRD. The model allows for further modification and adaptation in future applications.