Abstract
This paper reports on the results of a project that investigated the way in which economic, technical and social change relates to the development of regional settlement systems, within a framework of migration and investment decisions. For this purpose a multilevel dynamic simulation model was developed, consisting of (1) a macro-analytic model of demoeconomic development in 34 labor market regions in North Rhine-Westphalia, (2) a micro-analytic model of intraregional location and migration decisions in 30 zones of the urban region of Dortmund, and (3) a micro-analytic model of land use development in one or more districts of Dortmund. For the general structure of this three-level model system see Wegener (1980) and Wegener et al. (1983). In this paper only the top level of the multilevel hierarchy, the model of regional demoeconomic development in North Rhine-Westphalia, will be discussed. First, various theories about regional development are evaluated, in the light of empirical data, to establish a conceptual framework for regional model building. Second, the major submodels of the simulation model as well as the links between them are discussed. This discussion focuses on submodels submodels evaluating regional labor markets, market potentials, and housing, and on two submodels simulating the aging and migration of population and the locational behavior of industries. Finally, a method of calibrating the model is explained, and some results are presented and evaluated.
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