A simulation model for ship navigation in the “Xiazhimen” waterway based on statistical analysis of AIS data

Abstract

The “Xiazhimen” waterway is regarded as the bottleneck of the shipping routes, linking the ship traffic between the hub areas in Ningbo-Zhoushan Port and the outside waters. In this paper, a microcosmic simulation model for ship traffic in the waterway is developed to investigate the motion behaviours of ships to various navigational scenarios. The simulation model is derived from the statistical analysis of AIS data and takes the ships' acceleration and deceleration into account by the extraction of ship traffic characteristics. An empirical ship domain model is formulated to determine the safe distance between ships. The update rules incorporating the ships’ interactions, the empirical domain model as well as transit rules are designed to simulate the speed fluctuations of ships. By comparing the real case with the simulation results in terms of the average passage time and the average speed along the waterway, the performance of the model are further validated. The model also facilitates the prediction of navigation risk and channel capacity with increased traffic volume and increased proportion of large-size ships.