Abstract
This study was divided into two phases. The first phase is theoretical discussion, including new economic geography, theory of increasing returns, lock-in effect, and the Polya process. The second phase is simulation design for the regional lock-in effect of Taiwan's urbanisation, that is, constructing a regional development system to simulate manufacturers' location selection (the dynamic process), where the rules of system design are based on the theoretical discussion in the first phase, and the world view will be through the simulation of four regions according to the Taiwan Regional Planning Act, then scenario analysis with or without the development strategies will be adopted to compare the effect, before and after the restructure of the five counties and cities, on the behaviour of firms' location selection, and further on the change and balance of Taiwan's regional development (that is, to examine whether any region would be locked in).
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