A Simulation Analyzing Approach to Estimating the Probability of Airborne Infection Risks in Railway Station Platform Coupling with the Wells-Riley Model and Pathfinder Model.

Yi-Zheng Dai,Chen-Yang Zhang,Yan-Jiao Chen,Balakrishnan Nagaraj

doi:10.1155/2021/6066109

Abstract

Railway station platforms present a particular challenge, especially during a train departure or arrival where some passengers may have potential conditions that make them vulnerable to airborne infections due to the high density and close proximity of passengers. This study presented a simulation analyzing approach to estimating the probability of airborne infection risks in station platform spaces coupling with the Wells-Riley model and Pathfinder model. We examine the impact of overcrowded area of the station platform on infection rates under various traces of evacuation. The result of the potential risk for three modes is discussed, and the results of the standard model under the same parameter setting are optimised. Next, the impact of the ventilated volume based on uneven distribution of individuals and the exposure time based on evacuation on the infection risk in platform spaces are studied. The relationship between platform spaces overcrowding and the infection risk provided further insights to observe the supporting information.

Highlights

Many infectious diseases are known to be transmitted via an airborne route, including coronavirus disease (COVID-19) [1], severe acute respiratory syndrome, influenza A virus subtype H1N1 [2], and tuberculosis [3]
Airborne infections pose a particular threat to susceptible individuals whenever they are placed together with the index case in confined spaces [4]. e risk of airborne transmission has been shown to be directly related to the number of susceptible individuals in many population studies [5]
Station platforms present a particular challenge, especially during a train departure or arrival where some passengers may have potential conditions that make them vulnerable to infections due to the high density and close proximity of passengers. e majority of the urban population relies on high-speed railways for travel and business purposes [9]. erefore, it is important to understand the potential infection risks faced by susceptible individuals on station platforms [10]

Summary

Introduction

Many infectious diseases are known to be transmitted via an airborne route, including coronavirus disease (COVID-19) [1], severe acute respiratory syndrome, influenza A virus subtype H1N1 [2], and tuberculosis [3]. Airborne infections pose a particular threat to susceptible individuals whenever they are placed together with the index case in confined spaces [4]. E risk of airborne transmission has been shown to be directly related to the number of susceptible individuals in many population studies [5]. Station platforms present a particular challenge, especially during a train departure or arrival where some passengers may have potential conditions that make them vulnerable to infections due to the high density and close proximity of passengers. Erefore, it is important to understand the potential infection risks faced by susceptible individuals on station platforms [10]. Regions with high and low infectious droplet concentrations will simultaneously exist within the same confined space, with the highest concentrations usually occurring close to overcrowded areas. The variation of overcrowded areas in platform spaces reflects the effects of passengers’ movements on the distribution of the infectious agent throughout the confined spaces during evacuation

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