A simplified risk score to predict difficult intubation: development and prospective evaluation in 3763 patients

Abstract

Despite the presence of numerous preoperative tests to predict a difficult airway, there is no reliable bedside method. The aim of this study was to create and verify a simplified risk model with an acceptable discriminating power. A total of 3763 patients from two university hospitals were screened for potential risk factors for difficult intubation, defined as needing additional technical or human resources, more than three attempts or duration more than 10 min. A random sample (n = 2509) was subjected to multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis, and the most powerful independent risk factors were used to build a simplified model that was applied to a validation dataset (n = 1254). The following factors (odds ratio) were associated with a difficult intubation: presence of upper front teeth (3.61), history of difficult intubation (2.88), any Mallampati status different from '1' (2.55) or equal to '4' (1.91) and mouth opening less than 4 cm (1.80). The discriminating power of the score was 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.63-0.81). The likelihood for a difficult intubation increases continuously from 0 (when no risk factor is present) to 2, 4, 8 and 17%, when one, two, three and more than three factors are present. The new simplified multivariate risk score for difficult intubation may prove to be useful in clinical practice for predicting a difficult airway. Presence of upper front teeth, a history of difficult intubation, any Mallampati status different from '1' and equal to '4' and mouth opening less than 4 cm are independent risk factors for difficult endotracheal intubation. With each of these risk factors, the likelihood increases from 0 (when no risk factor is present) to 17% (when four or five factors are present).