A simple urban dispersion model tested with tracer data from Oklahoma City and Manhattan

Abstract

A simple urban dispersion model is tested that is based on the Gaussian plume model and modifications to the Briggs urban dispersion curves. An initial dispersion coefficient ( σ o) of 40 m is assumed to apply in built-up downtown areas, and the stability is assumed to be slightly unstable during the day and slightly stable during the night. Observations from tracer experiments during the Joint Urban 2003 (JU2003) field study in Oklahoma City and the Madison Square Garden 2005 (MSG05) field study in Manhattan are used for model testing. The tracer SF 6 was released during JU2003 near ground level in the downtown area and concentrations were observed at over 100 locations within 4 km from the source. Six perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) gases were released near ground level during MSG05 and sampled by about 20 samplers at the surface and on building roofs. The evaluations compare concentrations normalized by source release rate, C/ Q, for each sampler location and each tracer release, where data were used only if both the observed and predicted concentrations exceeded threshold levels. At JU2003, for all samplers and release times, the fractional mean bias (FB) is about 0.2 during the day (20% mean underprediction) and 0.0 during the night. About 45 –50% of the predictions are within a factor of two (FAC2) of the observations day and night at JU2003. The maximum observed C/ Q is about two times the maximum predicted C/ Q both day and night. At MSG05, for all PFTs, surface samplers, and release times, FB is 0.14 and FAC2 is about 45%. The overall 60 min-averaged maximum C/ Q is underpredicted by about 40% for the surface samplers and is overpredicted by about 25% for the building-roof samplers.