Abstract
AbstractA simple two‐stage (STS) model for cancer death rates on the Lexis diagram is proposed to project cancer risk in the environment, and the identifiability, the existence and consistency of MLEs for the parameters in the proposed model are discussed. From the results of fitting STS and the age‐period‐cohort (APC) model to the data obtained in Japan it is seen that the STS model provides a better fit to the data than the APC model even though the STS model has a smaller number of parameters than the APC model. Further, the results suggest that there are high risks associated with the environmental pollution due to the phase of industrial revolution between 1880 and 1900, malnourishment in the period of World War II, and the environmental pollution due to the economy in the recovery and high growth period between 1950 and 1975. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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