A Simple System Dynamics Model for the Global Production Rate of Sand, Gravel, Crushed Rock and Stone, Market Prices and Long-Term Supply Embedded into the WORLD6 Model

Abstract

A model for global supply of sand, gravel and cut stone for construction based on a system dynamics model was developed for inclusion in the WORLD6 model. The Sand-Gravel-Stone model simulates production and market supply, demand and price for natural sand and gravel, sand and gravel from crushed rock and cut stone. The model uses market mechanisms where the demand is depending on population size, maintenance and price. For the period 2000–2050, the WORLD6 model outputs correlate with the GINFORS model outputs (r 2 = 0.98), but they may take different pathways after 2050. The resources of sand and gravel are estimated at 12 trillion ton each, another 125 trillion tons of rock is suitable for crushing to sand and gravel and at least 42 trillion ton of quality stone is available for production of cut stone. The simulation, under assumed business-as-usual conditions, shows that cut stone production will reach a maximum level by about 2020–2030 and stabilize after that. The cause for this is that demand exceeds extraction as well as slow exhaustion of the known reserves of high-quality stone. Sand and gravel show plateau behaviour and reach their maximum production rate in 2060–2070. The reason for the slight peak towards a plateau behaviour is partly driven by an expected population decline and increasing prices for sand and gravel, limiting demand. Assuming business-as-usual conditions rates remain at that level for centuries.