Abstract
Often, a treatment and the outcome of interest are characterized by the moment they occur, and these moments are realizations of stochastic processes with dependent unobserved determinants. We develop a simple and intuitive method for inference on the treatment effect. The method can be implemented as a graphical procedure or as a straightforward parameter test in an auxiliary univariate single-spell duration model. The method exploits information on the timing of the treatment relative to the outcome that is discarded in binary treatment analyses.
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