Abstract
Abstract. A novel predictive model was built for eddy propagation trajectory using the multiple linear regression method. This simple model relates various oceanic parameters to eddy propagation position changes in the northern South China Sea (NSCS). These oceanic parameters mainly represent the effects of β and mean flow advection on the eddy propagation. The performance of the proposed model has been examined in the NSCS based on five years of satellite altimeter data and demonstrates its significant forecasting skills over a 4-week forecast window compared to the traditional persistence method. It was also found that the model forecasting accuracy is sensitive to eddy polarity and the forecast season.
Highlights
Mesoscale eddies are coherent rotating structures that are ubiquitous over most of the world’s oceans (Chelton et al, 2007)
The mean flow advection and the effects of β are closely related with the eddy propagation. These factors should be considered as the potential predictors, and the seasonal climatological eddy zonal and meridional motions (U_CLIM, V_CLIM) derived from the maximum cross-correlation (MCC) are calculated to represent the effects of β and the mean flow advection
It shows that our multiple linear regression model beats the persistence method and indicates our model has some forecasting skill (Table 5): the root mean square error (RMSE) between the predicted and the actual longitudes throughout the 4-week horizon is 32.7–89.2 km (29.5–73.5 km) with the correlation coefficients > 0.93 (> 0.95)
Summary
Mesoscale eddies are coherent rotating structures that are ubiquitous over most of the world’s oceans (Chelton et al, 2007). The forecasting skill and predictability of dynamical models can only be increased by better assimilation schemes (initialization), sufficient data (especially the subsurface), and improving resolution (physics and computing) (Rienecker et al, 1987; Oey et al, 2005). These restrictions preclude the all-pervading operational use of dynamical models when the initial data and computing power are not feasible due to certain reasons. We will first analyze the pattern and dynamics of the common westward movement of eddies in the NSCS, choose the potential predictors and develop a simple predictive model for eddy propagation trajectories, and evaluate the model performance and discuss the impact of eddy polarity and season on the forecasting accuracy
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