A simple note on the growth rate of Covid-19 in Indonesia based on a curve trend generated by a spreadsheet

Abstract

This preliminary study is aimed at examining the growth rate of Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia in a framework of a nationwide issue. Using a spreadsheet, this study generates time-series development of the disease from its early stage in March to the late of July 2020. The study focuses on the analysis of three indicators, namely the number of people confirmly infected, recovered, and dead, daily reported by the authorities to monitor the severe outbreak. A number of groups of people, such as people under observation (ODP), suspected (PDP), and with no symptoms (OTG) are excluded from selected indicators due to difficulties in detection of people accounted for in each group. Cases confirmed are given by the results of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests from swab sampled and are not determined by those of rapid tests. The data were collected from The Ministry of Health, The Republic of Indonesia and National Agency for Disaster Relief (BNPB). We report findings on the effectiveness of a PSBB policy that includes physical and social distancing during different stages and the possible roles of four connected parameters, namely community resilience, goverment control, medical access and treatment, and economy recovery. From the data acquired and presented in separate curves, we analyse the growth rate of Covid-19 in Indonesia. Regarding distinct trends of the curves with an indication of a continuous transmission, we conclude that combined factors, involving ineffective implementation of the policy and a low community resilience make the infectious disease outbreak uncontrollable in some sense.