A simple nomogram for assessing the risk of IgA vasculitis nephritis in IgA vasculitis Asian pediatric patients

Abstract

A nomogram for assessing the risk of IgA vasculitis nephritis (originally termed Henoch–Schönlein purpura nephritis, HSPN) in IgA vasculitis (originally termed Henoch–Schönlein purpura, HSP) pediatric patients can effectively improve early diagnosis and prognosis of IgA vasculitis nephritis. However, currently, no nomogram is available. 246 IgA vasculitis and 142 IgA vasculitis nephritis Asian pediatric patients confirmed by renal biopsy were enrolled. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify the independent risk factors and construct a series of predictive models. The receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, decision curve analysis, net reclassification index and integrated discrimination index were used to screen the best model. Stratification analysis was applied to optimize model’s clinical utility. An external validation set was introduced to verify the predictive efficiency. The final predictive model was converted to nomogram for visual use. We identified age, duration of rash (Dor), D-dimer and IgG as independent risk factors and constructed four models as follows: AIDD (Age + IgG + Dor + D-dimer), AIDi (Age + IgG + D-dimer), AIDo (Age + IgG + Dor) and ADD (Age + Dor + D-dimer), which achieved the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.931, 0.920, 0.856 and 0.907, respectively. Finally, AIDi model with an AUROC of 0.956 and 0.897 in internal and external validating sets was proposed as a novel predictive model. In stratification analysis by gender and histological grade, the AUROC of AIDi was 0.949 in female, 0.926 in male, 0.933 in mild histological grades and 0.939 in severe histological grades, respectively. AIDi nomogram is an effective and visual tool for assessing the risk of nephritis in IgA vasculitis Asian pediatric patients, regardless of IgA vasculitis nephritis histological grades and gender.