Abstract
AbstractA debate has been raging for centuries regarding the effects of interannual storage on commodity prices. Most analysts consider storage to function as a price stabilizer, while others place it at the core of an explanation of intriguing features of commodity price series, such as skewed distributions. Most studies have been developed in the context of the theory of competitive storage where random shocks affect supply or demand. Recently, the endogenous chaotic behavior of markets has become another possible hypothesis regarding the origin of commodity price fluctuations. We develop a nonlinear cobweb model with intra‐ and interannual storage, risk averse agents, and adaptive expectations. Like the theory of competitive storage, this nonlinear cobweb model with storage can reproduce some of the stylized facts of agricultural commodity prices (autocorrelation of first rank, low kurtosis, and skewness). In addition, the effects of storage on price variation are mixed. In the presence of interannual storage, chaotic price series show less variation compared to a situation without interannual storage but we find that storage contributes to the endogenous volatility of prices by making chaotic dynamics more likely.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
