Abstract
ABSTRACTWe deal with the following question: Can the consumption of contaminated bush meat, the funeral practices and the environmental contamination explain the recurrence and persistence of Ebola virus disease outbreaks in Africa? We develop an SIR-type model which, incorporates both the direct and indirect transmissions in such a manner that there is a provision of Ebola viruses. We prove that the full model has one (endemic) equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable whereas, it is globally asymptotically stable in the absence of the Ebola virus shedding in the environment. For the sub-model without the provision of Ebola viruses, the disease dies out or stabilizes globally at an endemic equilibrium. At the endemic level, the number of infectious is larger for the full model than for the sub-model without provision of Ebola viruses. We design a nonstandard finite difference scheme, which preserves the dynamics of the model. Numerical simulations are provided.
Highlights
In 2014, an outbreak of Ebola virus (Ebola) decimated many people in Western Africa
The above-mentioned considerations raise the following research question: Can the consumption of contaminated bush meat, the funeral practices, and the environmental contamination explain the recurrence and persistence of Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks in Africa? Naturally, this question should be coupled with the well-known direct transmission route, which involves contact with: (1) blood or body fluid; (2) objects that have been contaminated with body fluid
From the theoretical point of view, we show in the following precise manner that the severity of the disease increases with the recruitment/provision of Ebola viruses and the disease dies out in the absence of such recruitment/provision as well as in the absence of shedding and manipulation of deceased individuals: (1) The full model has only one endemic equilibrium, which is locally asymptotically stable (LAS) while in the absence of shedding or manipulation of deceased individuals, this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS)
Summary
In 2014, an outbreak of Ebola virus (Ebola) decimated many people in Western Africa. With more than 16,000 clinically confirmed cases and approximately 70% mortality cases, this was the more deadly outbreak compared to 20 Ebola threats that occurred since 1976. In Africa, and in the regions that were affected by Ebola outbreaks, people live close to the rain-forests, hunt bats and monkeys and harvest forest fruits for food [23,24]. As part of their tradition and customs, Africans. This question should be coupled with the well-known direct transmission route, which involves contact with: (1) blood or body fluid (including but not limited to urine, saliva, sweat, feces, vomit, breast milk, and semen); (2) objects (e.g. clothes, bedding) that have been contaminated with body fluid To address this question, we develop a simple deterministic model that captures the African practices.
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