Abstract

Abstract Every utility matrix in a Bayesian decision problem determines a “critical probability” for each of the states of nature: when a critical probability is exceeded, the assessment of the remaining probabilities is unnecessary and a simplified decision rule can be applied. Formulas are given to compute the critical probabilities from the utilities. The critical probabilities i) determine the decision, when one of them is exceeded; ii) serve as references for the Bayesian decisionmaker in assessing the probability values.

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