A simple approach to projecting the electoral college

Abstract

The following research note examines the utility of a simpler method of projecting the winners of the various states within the United States Electoral College system. While more advanced models may be able to center on state-level presidential winners earlier in an election year, those models, among others, continue to be confounded by states where the lead is small and/or not clear. This research will demonstrate that over the course of the elections from 2000 to 2012, a simple weighted average identifies state winners as well as the more complex models.