A Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Method for Airport Group Route Waypoints Based on the Spatiotemporal Features of Traffic Flow

Abstract

To fully leverage the spatiotemporal dynamic correlations in air traffic flow and enhance the accuracy of traffic flow prediction models, thereby providing a more precise basis for perceiving congestion situations in the air route network, a study was conducted on a traffic flow prediction method based on deep learning considering spatiotemporal factors. A waypoint network topology graph was constructed, and a neural network model called graph convolution and self-attention-based long short-term memory neural network (GC-SALSTM) was proposed. This model utilized waypoint flow and network efficiency loss rate as input features, with graph convolution extracting spatial features from the waypoint network. Additionally, a long short-term memory network based on a self-attention mechanism was used to extract temporal features, achieving accurate prediction of waypoint traffic. An example analysis was performed on a typical busy sector of airports in the Central and Southern China region. The effectiveness of adding the network efficiency loss rate as an input feature to improve the accuracy of critical waypoint traffic prediction was validated. The performance of the proposed model was compared with various typical prediction models. The results indicated that, with the addition of the network efficiency loss rate, the root mean square error (RMSE) for eight waypoints decreased by more than 10%. Compared to the historical average (HA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), and graph convolution network and long short-term memory network (GCN-LSTM) models, the RMSE of the proposed model decreased by 11.78%, 5.55%, 0.29%, 2.53%, and 1.09%, respectively. This suggests that the adopted network efficiency loss rate indicator effectively enhances prediction accuracy, and the constructed model exhibits superior predictive performance in short-term waypoint traffic forecasting compared to other prediction models. It contributes to optimizing flight paths and high-altitude air routes, minimizing flight delays and airborne congestion to the greatest extent, thus enhancing the overall efficiency of the entire aviation system.