A short-term forecasting method for photovoltaic power generation based on the TCN-ECANet-GRU hybrid model

Abstract

Due to the uncertainty of weather conditions and the nonlinearity of high-dimensional data, as well as the need for a continuous and stable power supply to the power system, traditional regression analysis and time series forecasting methods are no longer able to meet the high accuracy requirements of today's PV power forecasting. To significantly improve the prediction accuracy of short-term PV output power, this paper proposes a short-term PV power forecasting method based on a hybrid model of temporal convolutional networks and gated recurrent units with an efficient channel attention network (TCN-ECANet-GRU) using the generated data of an Australian PV power station as the research object. First, temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) are used as spatial feature extraction layers, and an efficient channel attention network (ECANet) is embedded to enhance the feature capture capability of the convolutional network. Then, the GRU is used to extract the timing information for the final prediction. Finally, based on the experimental validation, the TCN-ECANet-GRU method generally outperformed the other baseline models in all four seasons of the year according to three performance assessment metrics: the normalized root mean square error (RMSE), normalized mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The best RMSE, MAE and R2 reached 0.0195, 0.0128 and 99.72%, respectively, with maximum improvements of 11.32%, 8.57% and 0.38%, respectively, over those of the suboptimal model. Therefore, the model proposed in this paper is effective at improving prediction accuracy. Using the proposed method, this paper concludes with multistep predictions of 3, 6, and 9 steps, which also indicates that the proposed method significantly outperforms the other models.