A Shallow Neural Network Approach for the Short-Term Forecast of Hourly Energy Consumption

Abstract

The forecasts of electricity and heating demands are key inputs for the efficient design and operation of energy systems serving urban districts, buildings, and households. Their accuracy may have a considerable effect on the selection of the optimization approach and on the solution quality. In this work, we describe a supervised learning approach based on shallow Artificial Neural Networks to develop an accurate model for predicting the daily hourly energy consumption of an energy district 24 h ahead. Predictive models are generated for each one of the two considered energy types, namely electricity and heating. Single-layer feedforward neural networks are trained with the efficient and robust decomposition algorithm DEC proposed by Grippo et al. on a data set of historical data, including, among others, carefully selected information related to the hourly energy consumption of the energy district and the hourly weather data of the region where the district is located. Three different case studies are analyzed: a medium-size hospital located in the Emilia-Romagna Italian region, the whole Politecnico di Milano University campus, and a single building of a department belonging to the latter. The computational results indicate that the proposed method with enriched data inputs compares favorably with the benchmark forecasting and Machine Learning techniques, namely, ARIMA, Support Vector Regression and long short-term memory networks.