A Set Covering Approach for Selecting Preferred Systems to Support Mission Engineering

Abstract

We propose a methodology for down-selecting systems to provide required capabilities for a system of systems (SoS). As part of the methodology, we introduce the reliability set covering (RSC) model, which extends the classical set covering optimization model to consider reliability in addition to cost. The proposed methodology embeds the RSC model in a simulation framework that varies factors such as the anticipated duration of the mission, the number of redundant systems of each type available, and the age/condition of each available system. The simulation is guided by a statistical design of experiments, and an analysis of variation is applied to the results. This allows the decision maker to identify scenarios where a significant increase in redundant systems or the use of more expensive systems is required, and “mission critical” systems that are selected in a relatively large number of simulation runs. The process provides the decision maker with cost and mission reliability estimates for each candidate SoS. We demonstrate the practicality of the process for a notional intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission with three required capabilities and five candidate system types, and randomly generated missions with up to eight required capabilities.