A sero-survey of rinderpest in nomadic pastoral systems in central and southern Somalia from 2002 to 2003 using a spatially integrated random sampling approach

Abstract

A cross-sectional sero-survey, using a two-stage cluster sampling design, was conducted between 2002 and 2003 in ten administrative regions of central and southern Somalia, to estimate the seroprevalence and geographic distribution of rinderpest (RP) in the study area, as well as to identify potential risk factors for the observed seroprevalence distribution. The study was also used to test the feasibility of the spatially integrated investigation technique in nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoral systems. In the absence of a systematic list of livestock holdings, the primary sampling units were selected by generating random map coordinates. A total of 9,216 serum samples were collected from cattle aged 12 to 36 months at 562 sampling sites. Two apparent clusters of RP seroprevalence were detected. Four potential risk factors associated with the observed seroprevalence were identified: the mobility of cattle herds, the cattle population density, the proximity of cattle herds to cattle trade routes and cattle herd size. Risk maps were then generated to assist in designing more targeted surveillance strategies. The observed seroprevalence in these areas declined over time. In subsequent years, similar seroprevalence studies in neighbouring areas of Kenya and Ethiopia also showed a very low seroprevalence of RP or the absence of antibodies against RP. The progressive decline in RP antibody prevalence is consistent with virus extinction. Verification of freedom from RP infection in the Somali ecosystem is currently in progress.