A Sequential Test For a Unit Root in Monitoring a p-th Order Autoregressive Process

Abstract

In this study, the authors investigate methods of sequential analysis to test prospectively for the existence of a unit root against stationary or explosive states in a p-th order autoregressive (AR) process monitored over time. Our sequential sampling schemes use stopping times based on the observed Fisher information of a local-to-unity parameter. In contrast to the Dickey–Fuller (DF) test statistic, the sequential test statistic has asymptotic normality. The authors derive the joint limit of the test statistic and the stopping time, which can be characterized using a 3/2-dimensional Bessel process driven by a time-changed Brownian motion. The authors obtain their limiting joint Laplace transform and density function under the null and local alternatives. In addition, simulations are conducted to show that the theoretical results are valid.