A sequential simulation method for the generating capacity adequacy evaluation of small stand-alone wind energy conversion systems

Abstract

This paper describes a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method for generating capacity adequacy evaluation of small stand-alone wind energy conversion systems containing battery storage. The wind speed, the energy conversion by the wind turbine generator, the equipment reliability and the energy storage facilities are major factors influencing the reliability performance of a wind energy conversion system. Time series models were used to simulate wind speeds incorporating any necessary chronological correlations. The power available from a wind turbine generator was calculated from the simulated wind speed using the function describing the relationship between wind speed and power output. The failure and repair characteristics of a wind turbine generator were simulated in a similar manner to those of conventional generating units. A battery state of charge time series was obtained from the load time series and the available wind generation time series. The performance of such a system is quite different from one containing conventional generating units due to the dispersed nature of the wind at the specific site location. The results and the discussions presented in this paper should prove useful in planning, designing, and operating small stand-alone wind energy conversion systems for electricity supply in remote areas.