A sequence of weather‐driven hydrodynamic events stimulates the formation of harmful algal blooms on an oligotrophic lake

Abstract

AbstractHarmful algal blooms (HABs) are common in many eutrophic lakes and frequently associated with nutrient excesses, warm waters, and calm conditions. While HABs can also occur in oligotrophic waterbodies, bloom‐stimulating factors remain elusive for these ecosystems. Here, using a high‐frequency sensor platform supported by hydrodynamic modeling, we document a clearly linked sequence of three hydrodynamic events that immediately preceded each HAB event on Skaneateles Lake, NY during 2018. HABs were first preceded by interactions between internal waves in the thermal structure of the lake with the northern slope of the lakebed. These interactions disturbed sediments resulting in upwelling of nutrient‐rich sediment and possibly cyanobacterial cells into the lower water column. Next, moderate winds stimulated Langmuir circulation which facilitated the transport of material from the lower water column to well‐lit surface waters. Finally, the sequence culminated with a calm wind period, which is often classically associated with surface HAB formation. While individual steps in this sequence occurred independently and repeatedly throughout the year, the complete sequence occurred only eight times, immediately preceding each of the eight documented HABs. We empirically derive thresholds for and timing of the sequence to independently predict HAB occurrence and elevated cyanobacteria levels in the lake. The discovery of this specific and repeated event sequence and the identified thresholds provides the potential for forecasting of HABs days in advance. Ongoing climate change impacts, including increasing water column thermal stratification and changing wind speeds may alter the frequency, timing, and duration of this sequence and consequent HAB formation.