Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of the impact of the political disruption in Iran on the world oil market. During the first quarter of 1979 this disruption caused a loss of approximately 5 million barrels per day (MMBD) of oil production available for export from Iran to the rest of the world. This loss of production and the political climate in Iran have caused much speculation concerning future Iraniun oil production and total Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production in the near-term and mid-term. The analysis describes these issues in terms of two critical factors: the world oil price and the level of OPEC oil production in the near-term and mid-term.
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